What have unemployment, outsourcing, immigration, asset bubbles, and so-called populist politics all got in common? They’re all the outcome of one of the central dynamics of capitalism. Karl Marx got a lot of things wrong, but this is one thing he got right. One of the spectres that has haunted capitalism from the beginning is that profits always fall. The second-order effects from that dynamic have driven much of Western politics for the last two hundred years. Since we are going through one such crisis right now, it’s worthwhile understanding how it works.
To show why profits always fall, let’s run through a thought experiment. We start with a stable, mostly agrarian society with full employment. Everybody in that society needs clothing. Therefore, the market for clothing is stable, and there exists a skilled workforce who have secure employment.
A capitalist invents a machine that facilitates an order of magnitude improvement in the productivity of clothing manufacturers. He now produces clothing at a far cheaper rate than the competition, and he can undercut them on price. At the beginning, however, he doesn’t need to offer the lowest possible price to the consumer because he has a competitive advantage. Therefore, he will set the price that maximises his profit, just far enough below the competition to win the market.
The capitalist’s competitors must either adapt or die. Many will go out of business. Some will figure out how to copy the new technology. They will now lower their own prices and start to eat into the profits of the first guy. He has no choice but to match it. Profits begin to go down, as does the price of clothing. Prices and profits continue to fall until the new equilibrium is reached.
Because fewer workers are required to make the same amount of clothing, unemployment occurs at the beginning of the cycle. That might sound like a bad thing, and initially it is for the workers who get fired. In the long run, however, the price of clothing goes down, and everybody benefits. Consumers will have more money to spend, and new industries will pop up to hire employees.
The sweet spot for capitalist production comes during the high-profit part of the cycle. Producers who have adopted new technology are flush with money but still have a level of protection while competitors scramble to catch up. My favourite example of this is the post-war pop music industry. The technology to produce recorded music was very expensive, but consumer demand was also very high. The industry was obscenely profitable, but its success was predicated on producing music that people wanted to buy. This created a huge demand for songwriting and musical talent, which hit its peak in the 1960s and 70s, certainly the golden age of pop music.
One of the main causes of the collapse of the industry was that recording technology became cheaper and cheaper over time. Alongside the internet’s destruction of the distribution monopoly that record labels had, profits began to tumble and have ended up at just a fraction of what they once were. As for the quality of the music, well, even AI-generated slop is now competitive.
All this is exactly what Marx had noted about how capitalism works. Profits fall over time due to competition via technology. Capitalism commodifies everything, and the commodification process always entails replacing humans with machines. Next thing you know, you’ve got computers making music instead of people.
We can sum up the cycle of capitalism like this. A capitalist employs new technology and takes profits by making workers redundant. Competitors catch up and take a share of the profit. The price falls, and profit returns to baseline. It’s easy to see that the workers are the ones who feel the brunt of this dynamic because they lose their jobs at the beginning of the cycle. Only later on, once they have hopefully found new work, can they benefit from the lower price of the good they once produced.
Because workers get the short end of the stick at the start of the cycle, it’s no surprise to find that they go looking for ways to protect their interests. That process has been ongoing since the start of capitalism. One of the main ways it began to manifest in the 19th century was through the rise of democracy.
This brings up one of the things that Marx got wrong. He correctly diagnosed that parliamentary democracy in Britain was originally dominated by the bourgeoisie. In fact, the rise of parliament represented the supremacy of the bourgeoisie against the remnants of the feudal aristocracy. In a parliament dominated by the bourgeoisie, the workers’ interests would not be represented. However, Marx underestimated the extent to which universal suffrage would bring about real change.
In fact, when you look at the main themes of democratic politics in the 19th and 20th centuries, programs to alleviate the second-order effects of the cycle of capitalism were fundamental. Democracy became a battle between capitalists and workers. Another way to say the same thing was that democracy became a battle over the cycle of capitalism and who should bear the costs.
Per Marx, capitalists always face the falling profit dynamic. There are a number of ways they can respond to it. One is to extract more value out of workers by requiring longer working hours. This was the favoured approach in the 19th century. Capitalists demanded twelve-hour workdays, and, because workers faced the prospect of unemployment, they had no choice but to agree.
In the longer term, workers figured out that they needed to band together to counteract the power of the capitalists. This led to the formation of unions which led the demand for reduced hours of work. Here in Australia, there was a famous strike in the middle of the 19th century carried out by the stonemasons in Melbourne who demanded and received an 8-hour workday. It took many decades more before all other workers would win the same, but eventually this became the standard.
Of course, passing laws to reduce working hours did not solve the problem of falling profits, it just removed one of the options available to capitalists. That led to the pursuit of a second option: immigration. If you couldn’t extract more value from workers, you could drive down their wages by increasing the supply of labour.
In countries like Australia and the USA, it was immigration which kickstarted the economy in the first place via the indentured servitude that came from willing or unwilling transportation. (Individuals who had no money could have the cost of their ship fare paid by agreeing to work a certain number of years as an indentured servant on arrival).
Once the economies of both nations became established, however, free citizens began to see that the continued importation of indentured servants was suppressing wages and job opportunities for themselves. A big part of the political pressure to abolish the practice came from these economic considerations. However, once slavery and indentured servitude were outlawed, capitalists simply turned to the next option: free immigration.
In eastern Australia and California, there were numerous Chinese who followed the gold rushes. In the north of Australia, Pacific Islanders were brought in to work on farms. In the colonies of South Africa, immigrants from India worked the sugar plantations. All of these practices allowed the capitalists to drive down wages at the expense of the local workforce.
It should be no surprise, therefore, that immigration became a political hot topic, with the parties representing the working class being most opposed. Here we see an interesting divergence between the USA and most other Western nations. Because the US lacked a firm federal government, it had less ability to control its borders.
In fact, there was a period of out-of-control immigration from Southern and Eastern Europe at the beginning of the 20th century. So large were the numbers of people coming in that the wages of the working class were suppressed for more than two decades until finally legislation was passed in 1924. Of course, this was all very much in the interests of the capitalists who profited from reduced wages.
The disruption in America did not go unnoticed internationally. Here in Australia, an immigration bill was passed in the early years of the 20th century. The then prime minister, Alfred Deakin, praised the bill to parliament by stating that it would prevent a repeat of the American debacle. It’s no coincidence that Deakin was the leader of the Labor Party and therefore represented the economic interests of workers.
With working hours fixed and immigration off the table, capitalists only had one option left to counteract falling profits, they could make workers redundant. It does seem rather coincidental that the Great Depression followed shortly after immigration restrictions were enacted. In most Western nations, one-third of the workforce found themselves out of a job.
Once again, it was left to the parliament to solve the problem. The eventual solution was unemployment benefits and the welfare state more generally. It should be noted that these kinds of programs had already been put in place in the 19th century by unions and mutual societies. The government was copying a model that had already been proven to work.
More generally, what occurred at this time was that the state intervened in the cycle of capitalism by taxing the profits of capitalists and redistributing them to workers via unemployment benefits. This reduced the burden that workers bore at the start of the cycle but also reduced the payoff to capitalists. Once again, democracy had intervened to alleviate a problem caused by the inherent falling profits dynamic of capitalism.
Putting it all together, we can see that it was through parliamentary democracy that the workers were able to protect themselves. Of course, the democratic solutions only came after long periods of suffering, but better late than never. By contrast, countries which did not have the tradition of parliamentary democracy were not able to mitigate the second-order effects of the falling profit problem, including Italy and Germany.
All of this is directly relevant to the world we live in because the iron law of declining profitability did not go away. All that has happened is that we have found new and ingenious ways to try and mitigate it. One of them is the arbitrage that comes from outsourcing work to nations who are happy to depreciate their currency. This gives capital what it always wants, cheaper labour. In this case it is entire nations which have their wages suppressed. That is what China is currently doing, but the model had already been established by both Japan and Germany in the post-war years.
Unemployment was always one of the problems caused by the falling profit dynamic. If you go by the official statistics, we have very low unemployment these days. Look a bit closer, however, and you see a different story. In most Western nations right now, somewhere between 20% and 30% of the working-age population is not in the labour force, meaning they are not counted as unemployed. We still have lots of unemployment, we have simply re-categorised it in the hope that nobody will notice.
The massive asset bubbles of recent decades are also predicted by Marx’s model because both falling profits and wages are offset by relative growth in capital assets. One of the solutions that was enacted to solve that was to ensure that the general public owned assets, most notably real estate. That measure is also disappearing fast, meaning that the general public is no longer sharing in the accumulation of wealth.
Finally, we have the capitalists’ old trick of using immigration to drive down wages. That issue had been put to bed for the first half of the 20th century but got re-opened on the back of the civil rights movement in the 1960s. As a result, it is now filtered through the lens of the culture wars, meaning that anybody who objects to having their job taken by a low-wage foreigner must be a lazy, stupid racist. This moralising tactic has been so successful, especially in the US, that blatant immigration fraud has now become standard business practice.
In short, we are living through a period where capital is once again doing its old trick of pushing the costs of falling profits onto the general public. This is the logical outcome of the neoliberal reforms of the 1990s, which were basically a laundry list of the old capitalist demands for immigration, asset bubbles, labour arbitrage, unemployment, etc. We gave capital whatever it wanted and the results have been entirely predictable.
Part of what made it hard for the average person to see what was happening was that the neoliberal agenda was implemented by the parties that had traditionally represented the workers (Democrats in the US, Labour parties elsewhere). Why that happened is an interesting question. It does seem that the fall of the USSR led to an ideological collapse among the elites of the West. It was concluded that capitalism really was the superior system. History was at an end, and a capitalist utopia was now upon us.
The absurd irony is that this kind of utopian thinking was what had motivated the Marxists in the first place. Furthermore, the capitalist ideologues made the exact same mistake as Marx in discounting the extent to which parliamentary democracy had kept capitalism from self-destructing. That’s why they collapsed into a screaming heap once Brexit and Trump showed up. Democracy has returned right on cue to spoil their little ideological fantasy.

